cash-forecast-13

---
name: cash-forecast-13
description: Builds a thirteen week cash sheet for a UK hospitality business from the cleared bank balance, the dated tax and payroll calendar, and the money the owner genuinely expects to land, then names the first week the balance breaks and the three moves that change it. Use in October before the winter, before signing anything with a monthly payment attached, or when a busy month still ended with an empty account.
---

# Know what is in the bank in week nine, before you sign anything in week one

You give this today's cleared bank balance, the last three months of bank lines, the rota, the supplier invoices you have not paid yet and the dates your VAT and PAYE fall due. You get back thirteen weekly columns on one page, every committed payment sitting in the week it actually leaves, the first week the balance breaks and by how much, and three named moves with the pounds and the week each one lands in. It will not tell you the business is fine, it will not smooth a bad week into the week beside it, and it will not put a single pound of trade you have not yet done into the balance you read the answer from.

## What it does

1. **Start from cleared money, not the till total and not the accounting software.** Ask for today's cleared balance on every business account, the agreed overdraft limit, and the floor the owner will not go below, which is usually the wage run plus a week of stock. Add the accounts into one opening figure and write down which accounts it came from. Cleared is the word that matters: a deposit taken on Sunday is not money you can pay a supplier with on Monday, and in hospitality the gap between the takings figure and the bank figure is the card settlement lag, the cash still in the safe and the deposits banked on Tuesday. Write the opening figure and its date at the top of the sheet.

2. **Lay out thirteen weekly columns from this Monday and put a real date on every one.** Thirteen weeks is a quarter, which is the unit the two largest dated outgoings actually arrive in. Label each column with the Monday date, not "week 3", because every instruction that comes out of this sheet is a phone call made on a specific day. A quarter is also long enough to contain a VAT return, three payrolls and a rent quarter, and short enough that the owner can still name the customers and the suppliers in it.

3. **Load the dated tax calendar first, because those payments do not negotiate.** VAT: GOV.UK states "The deadline for submitting your return online is usually one calendar month and 7 days after the end of an accounting period", and the same deadline applies to the money arriving in HMRC's account. PAYE and National Insurance: the deadline is "the 22nd of the next tax month" when paying electronically, and "If you pay by cheque through the post, it must reach HMRC by the 19th of the month". Put each of these in its week by date before anything else goes on the sheet. If the business is on the annual accounting scheme for VAT, the instalments are due at months 4 to 12 and the balance "within 2 months of month 12", which is a different shape entirely and must be read off the owner's own schedule.

4. **Then load payroll, and check the count.** Thirteen weeks contains three monthly pay runs, or thirteen weekly ones, and a sheet showing two monthly runs has lost a month. Take the gross from the rota rather than last month's payslips if the rota is known, because hospitality payroll moves with the trading pattern. If the window crosses 1 April, step the hourly cost up: the National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage "rates change on 1 April every year", and the rates applying from April 2026 are £12.71 for 21 and over, £10.85 for 18 to 20, and £8 for under 18 and for apprentices. An owner who forecasts April at March's rates has under-counted the single biggest line on the sheet.

5. **Load rent, rates, finance and every standing order from the bank lines, not from memory.** Read the last three months of bank statements and list every recurring debit with its date and amount, then place each one in the weeks it recurs. Business rates deserve their own row and their own warning: the council "will send you a business rates bill in February or March each year" for the year that follows, so a forecast built in the autumn is carrying last year's instalment while the number that will actually be charged is not yet known. Rent on a commercial lease is frequently quarterly rather than monthly, so read the lease and put the quarter in the week the lease says, not in even monthly thirds.

6. **Put money in as one line per source, dated the week the cash genuinely clears, and get a likelihood from the owner in their own words.** Card takings clear on the acquirer's own timetable, so use the observed lag from the bank statements rather than the trading date. Trade and account customers, function balances, deposits already held and any grant or insurance payment each get their own line. For every line that is not a walk-in taking, ask the owner one question: certain, likely, or doubtful, in their own words about that customer. Any line the owner will not put a word against comes out of the forecast entirely and is listed underneath in a block headed Not counted, with the amount shown so the owner can see exactly what has been left out.

7. **Keep trade you have not yet done out of the balance.** The Christmas bookings not yet confirmed, the enquiry that always converts, the function the agent says is coming: these go below the closing balance line as a separate scenario row that is never added into it. This is the discipline the whole sheet rests on. A thirteen week forecast that counts hoped-for trade tells the owner what they want to hear in the exact week they most need to be told something else.

8. **Work each week's closing balance, then name the break week as a calendar date and say what the shortfall is.** Closing equals previous closing plus receipts minus payments, week by week, and week thirteen's closing equals the opening balance plus the sum of the thirteen net movements. Name the first week the closing balance goes below zero, and separately the first week it goes below the owner's stated floor, both as a Monday date such as "week commencing 12 January". Give the shortfall in pounds. If neither happens, say so in one sentence and give the lowest week and its balance instead. Then say plainly what the sheet is a test of: a company is deemed unable to pay its debts under section 123(1)(e) of the Insolvency Act 1986 "if it is proved to the satisfaction of the court that the company is unable to pay its debts as they fall due", and a forecast showing that is a reason to ring the accountant this week rather than file the sheet.

9. **Finish with three named moves and the date to come back.** Each move is one specific thing: an invoice to chase with the customer named and the amount, a payment to move with the supplier named and the new date agreed rather than assumed, or a cost to stop with the pounds it saves and the week it stops landing in. Show what each move does to the break week, because a move that shifts the break by four days is not worth the phone call and a move that clears it is. Then put the roll-forward instruction on the sheet: come back next Monday with the actual bank balance, write it beside the forecast figure, and explain the largest differences before rolling the window on a week. A sheet that is never checked against what happened is a guess that gains authority with age.

## Then it checks

1. The opening balance equals the cleared bank balance the owner supplied, to the penny, and the sheet names the accounts and the date it was taken.
2. Thirteen dated Monday columns exist, and the tax calendar rows carry real dates: the VAT due date is one calendar month and seven days after the period end shown, and PAYE sits on the 22nd of each tax month, or the 19th where the owner pays by post.
3. The payroll count is right for the pay frequency, three runs for monthly and thirteen for weekly, and any week crossing 1 April uses the rate in force from that date rather than the earlier one.
4. Every receipt line that is not a walk-in taking carries a likelihood in the owner's own words, and every line without one appears in the Not counted block and in no total.
5. No unconfirmed booking, quote, enquiry or expected function appears anywhere above the closing balance line.
6. The arithmetic closes: week thirteen's closing balance equals the opening balance plus the sum of the thirteen weekly net movements, and the break week is stated as a Monday date with the shortfall in pounds, or the sheet says in one sentence that no week breaks and gives the lowest.

Any check fails: name it, redo that step once. Failed twice: say what is wrong and stop.

## Rules
- Public information only.
- Never invent a fact, a number or a quote.
- Anything sent in someone's name says whose name it is. A payment holiday asked of a supplier goes out over the owner's name, not the bookkeeper's.
- Never invent a payment likelihood, a settlement lag or an average collection period. If the owner has not given it and the bank statement does not show it, the line is excluded and listed as not counted. A likelihood the owner did not supply is the one number on the sheet that will be believed and cannot be checked.
- Never smooth a week, never round a payment into the following week and never net a receipt against a payment to make a column survive. If the balance breaks, show it breaking on the date it breaks.
- Refuse to produce a version of the sheet with the unconfirmed bookings added into the closing balance, even if the owner asks for it to show a lender. A forecast prepared for a third party with hoped-for trade counted as cash is a document the owner should not be handing anybody.
- Never tell an owner the business is solvent, viable or fine. The sheet shows what the balance does on the numbers supplied and nothing more.
- This skill does not calculate the break-even covers, the true cost of card acceptance, or the weekly takings sheet. Those are separate jobs and separate skills, and this one takes their outputs as inputs where they exist.
- This output is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check before it is shown to a bank, a lender, a landlord or an investor. It is not financial, tax or insolvency advice. Where it shows the business unable to pay its debts as they fall due, say so in plain words on the page and tell the owner to speak to their accountant or a licensed insolvency practitioner now, not at the year end.

## Built from
- GOV.UK, "Send a VAT Return: Deadlines", https://www.gov.uk/vat-returns/deadlines, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the one calendar month and seven days rule that dates the VAT row in step 3, and the point that the same deadline applies to the money reaching HMRC.
- GOV.UK, "Pay employers' PAYE", https://www.gov.uk/pay-paye-tax, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 22nd of the next tax month for electronic payment and the 19th for cheques, which fixes the PAYE rows in step 3.
- GOV.UK, "VAT Annual Accounting Scheme: Return and payment deadlines", https://www.gov.uk/vat-annual-accounting-scheme/return-and-payment-deadlines, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the instalment shape at months 4 to 12 and the balance within 2 months of month 12, used in step 3 where the business is on that scheme.
- GOV.UK, "National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates", https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 1 April change date and the rates applying from April 2026, which step 4 uses to step payroll up mid-window.
- GOV.UK, "Introduction to business rates", https://www.gov.uk/introduction-to-business-rates, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the February or March billing cycle that makes the rates row in step 5 an estimate until the bill arrives.
- Insolvency Act 1986, section 123, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1986/45/section/123, read 16 September 2026: the cash flow test in section 123(1)(e) quoted in step 8, which is the legal question this sheet actually answers.

# cash-forecast-13

## You are given
One UK hospitality business. Today's cleared balance for every business account, each with the account name, the balance and the date and time it was read. The agreed overdraft limit and the cash floor the owner will not go below, both as figures the owner stated. The last three months of bank statement lines as CSV or PDF, with date, description, money in and money out. The rota for the forecast window, or the last three payslips where no rota exists. Every unpaid supplier invoice with its date, amount, VAT and stated terms. The VAT accounting period end dates and the scheme in use. The PAYE payment method, electronic or cheque, and the pay frequency. The lease, or the rent amount with the dates it is due. Every expected receipt as a separate line with amount, source, expected date and a likelihood word supplied by the owner, which is exactly one of `certain`, `likely` or `doubtful`. Any unconfirmed bookings, quotes and enquiries, supplied separately and clearly marked as not yet won. And the three moves the owner and Claude have already agreed, each as a sentence naming the party, the amount and the date.

## Produce
Write into a `./cash-forecast-13-output/` folder:

1. `opening-balance.csv` with these columns in this order: `account_name`, `sort_code_last_two`, `cleared_balance_gbp`, `balance_read_at`, `overdraft_limit_gbp`, `included_in_opening`. `included_in_opening` is `yes` or `no`. The final row is `TOTAL` and is the opening figure every other file starts from.
2. `payments-out.csv` with columns: `payment_ref`, `week_commencing`, `category`, `payee`, `amount_gbp`, `due_date`, `source_of_date`, `committed`. `payment_ref` is P001 upward. `category` is exactly one of `vat`, `paye_and_nic`, `payroll`, `rent`, `business_rates`, `finance_or_loan`, `supplier`, `utility`, `insurance`, `subscription`, `other`. `source_of_date` is exactly one of `bank statement`, `invoice`, `lease`, `hmrc deadline`, `rota`, `owner stated`. `committed` is `yes` or `no`.
3. `receipts.csv` with columns: `receipt_ref`, `week_commencing`, `source_type`, `payer`, `amount_gbp`, `expected_clear_date`, `observed_lag_days`, `likelihood`, `counted`. `source_type` is exactly one of `card takings`, `cash takings`, `account customer`, `function balance`, `deposit already held`, `grant or insurance`, `other`. `likelihood` is exactly one of `certain`, `likely`, `doubtful` or `none supplied`. `counted` is `yes` or `no`, and is `no` for every row whose `likelihood` is `none supplied`.
4. `weekly-sheet.csv` with columns: `week_no`, `week_commencing`, `opening_balance_gbp`, `receipts_counted_gbp`, `payments_out_gbp`, `net_movement_gbp`, `closing_balance_gbp`, `below_zero`, `below_floor`, `payroll_in_week`, `vat_in_week`, `paye_in_week`. Thirteen rows, week 1 commencing the Monday supplied. The last four columns are `yes` or `no`.
5. `not-counted.md` - every receipt line excluded for want of a likelihood, and every unconfirmed booking, quote or enquiry, each with its amount and the week it would have fallen in, under the heading `Not counted`. This file exists even when it is empty, and says so.
6. `break-week.md` - the first week commencing date on which `closing_balance_gbp` is below zero and the shortfall in pounds, the first week it is below the stated floor and by how much, and where neither happens the lowest week with its date and balance. Three lines, no commentary.
7. `moves.csv` with columns: `move_no`, `move_text_verbatim`, `party`, `amount_gbp`, `week_commencing`, `break_week_before`, `break_week_after`, `days_moved`. The move text is copied exactly as supplied and never rewritten.
8. `gaps.md` - a numbered list of: any account with no read time; any recurring debit found in the bank lines that appears in no week of `payments-out.csv`; any week between 1 and 13 with no payroll row where the pay frequency says there should be one; any receipt with no likelihood; any payment whose `source_of_date` is `owner stated` where a document was expected; any week whose arithmetic does not close; and any figure that could not be traced to a supplied document.

## Rules
- Codex measures, places, counts and checks. It never invents a likelihood, a settlement lag, a payment date or an amount, never reworks a figure the owner supplied, and never makes the judgement that was handed to it.
- Never place a receipt line in `weekly-sheet.csv` whose `likelihood` is `none supplied`. Those rows go to `not-counted.md` and to no total anywhere.
- Never place an unconfirmed booking, quote or enquiry into `receipts.csv` or into any closing balance, whatever it is worth and whoever asks.
- Never smooth, round, net or move a payment between weeks. A payment sits in the week its due date falls in, and the due date comes from the document named in `source_of_date`.
- Never write a second version of `weekly-sheet.csv` with pipeline added, and never produce a lender-facing variant.
- Check the arithmetic in both directions: each row's closing equals its opening plus receipts minus payments, and week 13's closing equals the `TOTAL` opening balance plus the sum of all thirteen `net_movement_gbp` values. Any mismatch is a `gaps.md` item, never a silent correction.
- Count recurring debits from the bank lines by description and amount, and list every one that does not appear in the forecast. A missing direct debit is the most common defect in a sheet like this and it will not announce itself.
- Amounts are recorded to the penny as supplied, never rounded to the nearest pound.
- Use British English, GBP with the pound sign, and DD Month YYYY dates. No em dashes in any file you write, and any supplied text containing one is recorded verbatim and flagged in `gaps.md`.
- Every file ends with this line: this is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check before it is shown to a bank, a lender or a landlord. It is not financial, tax or insolvency advice.

## Return
The absolute path of every file written, the row count of each CSV, the `TOTAL` opening balance and the accounts it came from, the count of receipt lines counted and not counted with the pounds in each, the count of payment rows by category, the number of payroll weeks found against the number expected for the pay frequency, the VAT and PAYE weeks by date, the break week and shortfall exactly as written to `break-week.md`, week 13's closing balance and the arithmetic cross-check result, every recurring bank debit absent from the forecast, and the `gaps.md` item count.