seasonal-float

---
name: seasonal-float
description: Works out the single reserve figure your quiet season needs and the date it has to be in the account, from your own bank history across two winters plus the dated tax calendar, then names what you can still change in October and what you can only survive. Use in the autumn, before you commit December's takings to anything, or after a January that emptied the account despite a good Christmas.
---

# The January number, worked out in October, with the date it has to be there by

You give this two years of bank statements, your Self Assessment and VAT position, your rateable value and your rota. You get back one reserve figure, the exact week it must be in the account, the dated list of what leaves between then and the recovery, the April step-changes that have to be funded before they arrive, and the three moves that are still available in October and stop being available in December. It does not forecast your takings, tell you the business is viable, or recommend borrowing.

## What it does

1. **Define the float as a dated low point, not a comfort number.** A float is not three months of costs and it is not a round number an owner feels safe with. It is the largest gap, in pounds, between the cleared balance and the payments that must leave, measured at the worst single week of the quiet season. Two outputs come from it: the figure, and the Monday it has to be there by. Everything else in this skill exists to compute those two. If the business already runs a thirteen week cash sheet, use it for the detail and use this for the target, because a rolling sheet built in October will not reach the last week of February.

2. **Use your own two winters, week by week, and never a sector figure.** Export the business account for at least twenty four months and total the net movement by calendar week. Two winters, because one may have had a refurbishment, a closure, a snow week or a wedding. Chart the weekly cleared balance and mark the trough in each year by date, not by month. That gives you the shape of your own seasonality, which is the only seasonality that can be relied on. There is no published figure for what a single independent venue takes in January, and a borrowed percentage will either frighten an owner into cutting a good business or reassure one who is about to run out.

3. **Separate money taken from money available, because December hides the gap.** Card settlements arrive after the trading date and net of fees. Deposits taken in November for a December function are held, not earned, and if they are spent on November stock the December wage run is already short. Gift vouchers sold in December are a liability that gets redeemed in the quiet months against food you then have to buy. List each of these separately with the pounds and the date the money actually clears, and take deposits and unredeemed vouchers out of the balance you measure the float against.

4. **Load the January tax pile in date order, because it is what turns a quiet month into a crisis.** Self Assessment: GOV.UK sets the deadlines as "31 January - for any tax you owe for the previous tax year (known as a balancing payment) and your first payment on account" and "31 July for your second payment on account". Payments on account are "due by midnight on 31 January and 31 July" and "Each payment is usually half of the tax you owed the previous year", with no payments on account where last year's tax was under £1,000 or where more than 80% was paid outside Self Assessment. So an owner whose profits rose last year pays the balancing amount and a payment on account sized on that same higher year, both on 31 January, in the week trading is at its worst. Add the VAT quarter falling "one calendar month and 7 days after the end of an accounting period", and PAYE on the 22nd.

5. **Then load the 1 April step-changes, because the float has to reach them.** Wages: the National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage "rates change on 1 April every year", and from 1 April 2026 the rate for 21 and over is £12.71, for 18 to 20 it is £10.85, and for under 18 and apprentices £8. Business rates: the retail, hospitality and leisure relief is gone. GOV.UK states "You cannot make a new claim for retail, hospitality and leisure relief. From 1 April 2026, you will need to use rate multipliers to calculate your business rates bill." For an eligible retail, hospitality or leisure property in England the multipliers for 2026 to 2027 are 43 pence where the rateable value is £51,000 or more up to £499,999, and 38.2 pence below £51,000, against 48 pence and 43.2 pence for everyone else. Multiply your own rateable value and put the figure in.

6. **Check whether you lost relief at the revaluation, because there is a specific cushion for exactly that.** The same page states: "You may be eligible for supporting small business relief if you lost some or all of your retail, hospitality and leisure business rate relief because of the revaluation on 1 April 2026." That is a claim to make with the local council, not an assumption to build into the float. Put it on the list as an action with a date and a named person to call, and model the float without it until the council confirms. A relief you have applied for is not a relief you have.

7. **Compute the float and state it as one sentence with a date.** Run the weekly cleared balance forward from the October starting point, deducting every dated payment from steps 4 and 5 and adding only the receipts you can evidence, then find the lowest point. The float is that low point plus the floor the owner will not go below, which in a venue is normally one wage run plus a week of stock. Write it as: the account needs £X cleared by Monday DD Month YYYY, and the low point falls in the week of DD Month YYYY at £Y. Two numbers, two dates. A range is not an answer, because nobody can act on a range.

8. **Take the October levers while they still exist, and price each one.** The VAT Annual Accounting Scheme replaces four returns with advance payments and one return, and you can join "if your estimated VAT taxable turnover is £1.35 million or less"; GOV.UK warns it "would not suit your business if you regularly reclaim VAT because you'll only be able to get 1 refund a year". A Budget Payment Plan lets you pay weekly or monthly towards the next Self Assessment bill before it falls due, which converts one 31 January shock into twelve manageable debits, and it has to be set up before the bill is overdue. Beyond that: hold a fixed weekly transfer to a second account from the first good week of November, and do not let December's takings be committed to anything that is not already on the dated list.

9. **Write the fallback down now, and mark it as a fallback rather than a plan.** If the float will not be reached, HMRC's Time to Pay exists, and it is worth knowing what it asks for before the phone call: the tax reference, bank details for a Direct Debit, and "details of your income and spending, or your company's income and spending if you owe company tax". The guidance is blunt about the conditions: "If you have savings or assets, HMRC will expect you to use these to reduce your debt as much as possible", and for a company, HMRC "may ask company directors to: put personal funds into the business, accept lending, extend credit". That is a reason to reach the float, not a substitute for it. Date the whole file, name the assumptions, and re-run it in the first week of February against what actually happened.

## Then it checks

1. The seasonal shape is built from at least twenty four months of the business's own bank data, every week is present with no gaps, and no figure anywhere comes from a sector average, a trade estimate or a comparable venue.
2. Deposits held, unredeemed gift vouchers and unsettled card takings are each listed with a pounds figure and a clearing date, and each is excluded from the balance the float is measured against.
3. Every dated outflow between the run date and 30 April carries a calendar date taken from the rule that sets it, with the source named, and the Self Assessment line shows the balancing payment and the payment on account as two separate amounts.
4. The business rates line is computed as rateable value multiplied by the multiplier that applies to this property, the multiplier used is stated as a figure, and supporting small business relief appears only as a dated action and never as a deduction.
5. The output states one float figure and one date by which it must be cleared, plus the week and the amount of the low point, and neither is expressed as a range.
6. Each October lever carries the eligibility condition, the deadline after which it is no longer available, and the pounds it moves, and the Time to Pay paragraph is labelled as a fallback.

Any check fails: name it, redo that step once. Failed twice: say what is wrong and stop.

## Rules
- Public information only.
- Never invent a fact, a number or a quote.
- Anything sent in someone's name says whose name it is. A letter to the council or to HMRC prepared here goes to the owner to send.
- Never state a typical January drop, a December uplift, a seasonal index or any benchmark for a single independent venue. No such published figure exists, and a float built on a borrowed pattern fails in the one week it was meant to cover.
- Never forecast takings. This skill sizes a reserve against dated outflows and evidenced receipts. Where trade has to be assumed, the assumption is written out, labelled as an assumption, and the float is also shown with that assumption at zero.
- Never count a relief, a grant, a refund or a rebate that has not been confirmed in writing. An application is an action with a date, not a receipt.
- Never contact HMRC, a council, a bank or a supplier, and never submit an application or a scheme registration.
- Must refuse to recommend borrowing, an overdraft, a merchant cash advance or any credit product as the answer to a short float. Naming the shortfall and its date is the output; how it is funded is a separate decision for the owner with their accountant.
- This output is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check before it is relied on, and for the council or HMRC where it touches rates or tax. It applies published deadlines and rates to the owner's own figures. It is not tax advice, it is not a rates determination, and it is not a statement that the business can or cannot meet its liabilities.

## Built from
- GOV.UK, "Understand your Self Assessment tax bill", the "Payments on account" page, https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account, and "Pay your Self Assessment tax bill", https://www.gov.uk/pay-self-assessment-tax-bill, no publication date shown on the pages, read 16 September 2026: the 31 January and 31 July deadlines, the half of last year's tax rule and the two exceptions in step 4, and the Budget Payment Plan in step 8.
- GOV.UK, "Send a VAT Return", the "Deadlines" page, https://www.gov.uk/vat-returns/deadlines, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the one calendar month and seven days rule in step 4.
- GOV.UK, "Pay employers' PAYE", https://www.gov.uk/pay-paye-tax, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 22nd of the next tax month deadline in step 4.
- GOV.UK, "National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates", https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 1 April uprating and the £12.71, £10.85 and £8 rates applying from 1 April 2026, in step 5.
- GOV.UK, "Business rates relief", the "Retail, hospitality and leisure relief" page, https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-business-rate-relief/retail-discount, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the end of the relief and the supporting small business relief route, in steps 5 and 6.
- GOV.UK, "Estimate your business rates", https://www.gov.uk/calculate-your-business-rates, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 2026 to 2027 multipliers of 43 pence and 38.2 pence for retail, hospitality and leisure and 48 pence and 43.2 pence otherwise, and the £51,000 and £500,000 thresholds, in step 5.
- GOV.UK, "VAT Annual Accounting Scheme", https://www.gov.uk/vat-annual-accounting-scheme, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the £1.35 million eligibility limit, the advance payments structure and the warning for businesses that regularly reclaim, in step 8.
- GOV.UK, "If you cannot pay your tax bill on time", the "Setting up a payment plan" page, https://www.gov.uk/difficulties-paying-hmrc/pay-in-instalments, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: what HMRC asks for, the savings and assets condition and the questions put to company directors, in step 9.

# seasonal-float

## You are given
A folder for one UK hospitality business. It contains: a CSV export of at least twenty four months of business bank transactions with date, description, amount in pounds, direction and running balance where the bank supplies it. Today's cleared balance on each business account with the date it was read, the agreed overdraft limit, and the floor the owner will not go below with a note of how it was derived. A schedule of deposits held for future bookings, each with the amount, the date taken and the date of the event. A gift voucher liability figure with the date it was taken from the accounts. Card acquirer and delivery platform statements showing the lag between trading date and cleared date. The Self Assessment position: last year's total tax, the balancing payment due and each payment on account with its due date, or a note that payments on account do not apply and which of the two exceptions is relied on. The VAT scheme, the accounting period end dates and the amounts where known. The payroll calendar with gross cost per run, and the rota or headcount by age band where the April rates change the cost. The property's rateable value, its nation, and whether it received retail, hospitality and leisure relief in the 2025 to 2026 billing year. And, already decided by Claude and supplied as text: the floor figure, which receipts count as evidenced, the assumptions to be written out, and which October levers the owner intends to take.

## Produce
Write into a `./seasonal-float-output/` folder:

1. `weekly-history.csv` with these columns in this order: `week_commencing`, `year_label`, `total_in_gbp`, `total_out_gbp`, `net_movement_gbp`, `closing_balance_gbp`, `weeks_present`, `data_complete`. One row per calendar week across the whole export, with no week omitted. `data_complete` is `yes` or `no`, set to `no` for any week with no transactions where the account was expected to be active, and every such week is listed in `gaps.md`.
2. `seasonal-shape.csv` with columns: `year_label`, `trough_week_commencing`, `trough_balance_gbp`, `peak_week_commencing`, `peak_balance_gbp`, `peak_to_trough_gbp`, `weeks_from_peak_to_trough`. One row per winter covered by the export, plus no averaged row of any kind.
3. `money-held-not-earned.csv` with columns: `item_type`, `reference`, `amount_gbp`, `date_taken`, `date_it_clears_or_is_redeemed`, `excluded_from_float_balance`. `item_type` is exactly one of `booking deposit`, `gift voucher liability`, `unsettled card takings`, `unsettled platform payout`. `excluded_from_float_balance` is `yes` for every row; any row marked `no` is a defect and is listed in `gaps.md`.
4. `dated-outflows.csv` with columns: `due_date`, `item`, `amount_gbp`, `amount_source`, `rule_that_sets_the_date`, `source_page`, `source_read_date`, `is_estimate`. Cover every dated outflow from the run date to 30 April. `item` includes separate rows for `Self Assessment balancing payment` and `Self Assessment first payment on account`, never a combined row. `is_estimate` is `yes` or `no`, and every `yes` row appears in `gaps.md`.
5. `business-rates.csv` with columns: `rateable_value_gbp`, `nation`, `rhl_eligible`, `multiplier_used_pence`, `multiplier_basis`, `annual_rates_gbp`, `instalments_assumed`, `supporting_small_business_relief_status`, `relief_deducted`. `annual_rates_gbp` is rateable value multiplied by the multiplier, computed. `supporting_small_business_relief_status` is exactly one of `not applied for`, `applied for on DD Month YYYY`, `confirmed in writing on DD Month YYYY`. `relief_deducted` must be `no` unless the status reads `confirmed in writing`.
6. `float-answer.md` - exactly four lines: the float figure and the Monday it must be cleared by; the low point week and its amount; the single largest dated outflow in the period with its date; and the same float figure recomputed with every assumption set to zero. All four written as single sentences with figures and dates, no ranges, no commentary.
7. `levers-and-fallback.csv` with columns: `lever`, `eligibility_condition_verbatim`, `deadline_to_act`, `pounds_moved_gbp`, `weeks_affected`, `owner_intends_to_take`, `category`. `category` is exactly `lever` or `fallback`, and the Time to Pay row is always `fallback`.
8. `gaps.md` - a numbered list of: every week with `data_complete` of `no`; every outflow where `is_estimate` is `yes`; every outflow with no source page or read date; any money-held row not excluded from the float balance; any relief deducted without written confirmation; any lever with no deadline recorded; every assumption written out in `float-answer.md`; and any figure supplied without a date it was read.

## Rules
- Codex measures, records and checks. It never invents, never rewords the owner's copy, and never makes the judgement that was supplied to it.
- Never write an average across years, a seasonal index, a percentage uplift or any figure described as typical, normal or expected for hospitality. Each year stands as its own row. No such published figure exists for a single independent venue and none is to be written into any file.
- Never forecast income. Only receipts the supplied text marks as evidenced enter the forward balance, and `float-answer.md` always carries the same figure recomputed with every assumption at zero.
- Never deduct a relief, grant, rebate or refund unless the supplied status reads confirmed in writing with a date.
- Never fill a missing week, amount or date with an interpolation, a carried forward figure or a zero. Missing is recorded as missing and goes to `gaps.md`.
- Never express the float as a range, a band or a rule of thumb such as a number of months of costs. One figure, one date.
- Never write a recommendation to borrow, to take an overdraft, to use a merchant cash advance or to approach any lender. Funding is out of scope for every file here.
- Never contact HMRC, a council, a bank or any third party, and never submit a scheme registration or a relief application.
- Every computed column must be reproducible from the other columns in its own row, and every rate, multiplier or deadline carries the page it came from and the date that page was read.
- Use British English, £ and DD Month YYYY dates. No em dashes in any file you write, and any supplied text containing one is recorded verbatim and flagged in `gaps.md`.
- Every file ends with this line: this is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check before it is relied on. It applies published deadlines and rates to the owner's own figures and is not tax advice, a rates determination, or a statement that the business can meet its liabilities.

## Return
The absolute path of each file written, the row count of each CSV, the number of weeks of history covered and how many were incomplete, the trough week and balance for each winter separately with no average, the total value excluded as money held and not earned broken down by item type, the count of dated outflows to 30 April with the total in pounds and how many are estimates, the rateable value and multiplier used with the computed annual rates figure, the four lines of `float-answer.md` reproduced exactly, the levers the owner intends to take with their deadlines, and the `gaps.md` item count.