event-idea-picker

---
name: event-idea-picker
description: Takes a list of event ideas you are considering for your pub, bar, restaurant or hotel and returns them ranked, with the ones you cannot lawfully run on your existing licence struck out, the ones that need a Temporary Event Notice flagged with the deadline to apply, a break-even number for each survivor, and one recommendation with the reason. Use before you book a band, print a poster or promise anybody a date.
---

# Pick the night that will actually sell, not the one you fancy

You give this your list of ideas, your premises licence, the days your venue is already quiet, and what you can spend. You get back a ranked shortlist: every idea that your current licence does not cover struck out with the reason, every idea that needs a Temporary Event Notice flagged with the date the notice has to be in, a break-even ticket or cover number for each idea that survives, and one recommendation with a runner-up. It will not tell you an idea will work. It tells you what each one costs to stand up, what permission it needs, and which of them you can run on the date you want.

## What it does

1. **Read the premises licence first and write down what it already lets you do, because that decides which ideas are real.** Section 1 of the Licensing Act 2003 lists the licensable activities as "(a) the sale by retail of alcohol, (b) the supply of alcohol by or on behalf of a club to, or to the order of, a member of the club, (c) the provision of regulated entertainment, and (d) the provision of late night refreshment". Late night refreshment is the sale of hot food or drink to the public between 11pm and 5am. Copy out of the licence: the permitted hours for each activity, the capacity, any condition on live or recorded music, any condition on outside areas, and any condition on door staff. An idea that runs past your permitted hours is not an idea, it is a variation application, and it belongs in a different column.

2. **Put the four licensing objectives at the top of the shortlist and judge every idea against them, because your council will.** Section 4 of the Act sets them out: "the prevention of crime and disorder", "public safety", "the prevention of public nuisance" and "the protection of children from harm". These are not a formality. They are the grounds on which a resident, the police or environmental health can ask for your licence to be reviewed, and a review is how a venue loses the hours it trades on. Write one line per idea saying which objective it puts under most pressure and what you would do about it. A late DJ night in a terraced street is a public nuisance question. A student promotion is a crime and disorder question and a mandatory conditions question. An all-ages afternoon is a protection of children question.

3. **Check the calendar against real fixed dates before you fall in love with a day.** The England and Wales bank holidays published on GOV.UK are the ones to work around: in 2026, 1 January, 3 April, 6 April, 4 May, 25 May, 31 August, 25 December and the Boxing Day substitute on 28 December; in 2027, 1 January, 26 March, 29 March, 3 May, 31 May, 30 August, and substitute days on 27 and 28 December. Then add the dates that are local and beat all of those: the school holidays for your catchment, the fixture list for the nearest ground, the town's own market or carnival, and anything already in your own diary. Pick the night from your own till data for the last twelve months, never from a seasonal pattern somebody quoted at you. Your quiet Tuesday is a fact about your venue.

4. **Cost each idea to the floor before you rank it, because the break-even number is the decision.** For every idea list the money that leaves before a customer arrives: the performer or host fee, the extra staff hours at the rate you actually pay, food or ingredient cost at your own prices, decoration and print, the music licence, and anything hired. Add them and divide by the gross margin you make on an average head on a normal night, worked out from your own figures. That gives the number of people who have to come for the night to pay for itself. Write that number next to the idea in plain words: "forty-two people through the door before this makes a penny." An idea whose break-even number is bigger than the room is dead, and this is the step that finds it in ten minutes rather than on the night.

5. **Separate the ideas that need no new permission from the ones that do, using the music deregulation as it actually stands.** Section 177A of the Licensing Act 2003, read with paragraph 12A of Schedule 1, takes live music and recorded music out of regulated entertainment where the premises are licensed for the on-supply of alcohol and are open for that purpose, the audience is "no more than 500 persons", and it happens "between 8am and 11pm on the same day". GOV.UK puts the same test as: "it takes place between 8AM and 11PM; and it takes place at an alcohol on-licensed premises; and the audience is no more than 500 people". Indoor sporting events are deregulated on the same hours up to 1,000 spectators. Two traps: the exemption falls away the moment the clock passes 11pm, so a band booked to finish at 11.30pm is a different legal animal from the same band finishing at 10.45pm; and section 177A lets a licensing authority put music conditions back on at a review, so read your own licence for conditions imposed that way before relying on the exemption.

6. **Flag every idea that needs a Temporary Event Notice with the date the notice has to be submitted, not the date of the event.** A TEN covers selling alcohol, providing entertainment and serving hot food or drink between 11pm and 5am at a one-off event. Section 100 of the Act caps the event period at "not exceeding 168 hours" and requires "the maximum number of persons (being a number less than 500)" on site at once, staff included. GOV.UK states the notice must be given "at least 10 clear working days before your event", that a late TEN can be given "5 clear working days before the event (but not earlier than 9 clear working days)", and that the fee is £21, with a copy to the police and to environmental health. Count the clear working days backwards on a real calendar including bank holidays, and put that date in the diary as a hard deadline, because a missed deadline kills the night and not the paperwork.

7. **Check the idea against the annual TEN allowance before you plan a series, because the allowance runs out quietly.** Section 107 requires the licensing authority to issue a counter notice once the limits are reached. For the premises, the triggers are at least 15 temporary event notices in a year, or more than 21 days in the year covered by permitted temporary event periods. For the individual giving the notice, a personal licence holder hits the limit at 50 notices or 10 late notices in a calendar year, and a person without a personal licence at 5 notices or 2 late notices. Count what has already been used this calendar year before proposing a monthly event. Four ideas that each need a TEN are one idea with a supply problem, and the person whose name goes on the notices is the constraint people forget.

8. **Kill the quiz night with a raffle attached before it becomes an illegal lottery.** Section 14 of the Gambling Act 2005 makes an arrangement a simple lottery where "persons are required to pay in order to participate", prizes are allocated to members of a class, and "the prizes are allocated by a process which relies wholly on chance". A quiz itself is usually a prize competition rather than a lottery because, in the Gambling Commission's words, the "outcome is determined by the participants skill, judgement or knowledge", and the skill needed must "prevent a proportion of those who enter from winning a prize". The raffle on the side is the problem. The Commission's guidance on incidental lotteries is that the lottery "must be promoted wholly for a purpose other than that of private gain", tickets cannot be sold "online (which includes social media) or in advance of the event", physical tickets must be issued, no more than £100 of proceeds may go on costs and no more than £500 on prizes. Any idea that fails one of those either changes or comes off the list.

9. **Rank what survives, write one line of reasoning per idea including the rejected ones, and put an owner and a decision date on the winner.** Order the survivors by break-even number, lowest first, and break ties on which one needs the least new permission. Under the table put the recommendation in one sentence, the runner-up in one sentence, and, for every idea struck out, the exact reason and the section or rule that struck it, so the same idea does not come back in six weeks with nobody remembering why it went. Then give the winner a date, a named person who owns it, the TEN deadline if it has one, and a go or no-go review date far enough ahead that cancelling is still cheap. An idea with no owner and no decision date is a conversation, not an event.

## Then it checks

1. Every idea on the list has been compared against the permitted hours, the capacity and the music conditions written on the actual premises licence, and any idea outside them is struck or marked as needing a variation, never quietly kept.
2. Every idea has a break-even number calculated from the venue's own costs and its own average margin, with no industry average, seasonal uplift or attendance benchmark used anywhere in the working.
3. Every idea involving music states whether it falls inside the section 177A exemption, naming the finish time, the expected audience number and whether the premises are open for the on-supply of alcohol, and any finish after 11pm is flagged.
4. Every idea needing a Temporary Event Notice carries the submission deadline as a real date counted back in clear working days, the running total of notices and days already used at the premises this calendar year, and the name of the person who will give the notice.
5. Every idea involving a prize, a raffle, a draw or a quiz states which of lottery, incidental lottery or prize competition it is, and names the specific condition it relies on to stay lawful.
6. Every struck idea carries the reason and the section, rule or guidance that struck it, and the recommendation carries a named runner-up and a decision date.

Any check fails: name it, redo that step once. Failed twice: say what is wrong and stop.

## Rules
- Public information only.
- Never invent a fact, a number or a quote.
- Anything sent in someone's name says whose name it is.
- Never state an expected attendance, a sector average, a conversion rate or a "quiz nights typically draw" figure. No published number exists for a single independent venue, and an owner who plans against a borrowed figure will book a band the room cannot pay for.
- Never tell an owner an idea is licensed, permitted or compliant. It reports what the licence and the published rules say and names what to ask the licensing officer, and the licensing officer decides.
- Never recommend an idea on the strength of enthusiasm, a competitor doing it, or a social media trend. Every ranking position has to trace back to a cost, a permission or a date.
- Never keep an idea alive with a caveat. An idea that needs a permission the venue does not hold is either moved to the variation column with the work named, or struck.
- Never propose a drinks promotion, a drinking game, an unlimited-drinks offer or a prize for drinking. Those are hit directly by the mandatory licensing conditions and they are how a venue ends up at a licence review.
- This output is a working document prepared for the owner to check against their own premises licence, their own accounts and their own diary, and for their licensing officer, accountant or solicitor to check before anything is booked or advertised. It gathers published rules and applies the owner's own figures. It is not legal advice and it is not a licensing decision.

## Built from
- Licensing Act 2003, section 1, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/1, read 16 September 2026: the four licensable activities quoted in step 1, which is the list an idea has to be checked against.
- Licensing Act 2003, section 4, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/4, read 16 September 2026: the four licensing objectives in step 2.
- Licensing Act 2003, section 177A, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/177A, and Schedule 1 paragraph 12A, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/schedule/1/paragraph/12A, read 16 September 2026: the 500 person and 8am to 11pm conditions in step 5, and the point that conditions can be re-imposed on a review.
- GOV.UK, "Entertainment licensing changes under the Live Music Act", https://www.gov.uk/entertainment-licensing-changes-under-the-live-music-act, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the plain wording of the deregulated test and the 1,000 spectator figure for indoor sporting events in step 5.
- GOV.UK, "Temporary Events Notice", https://www.gov.uk/temporary-events-notice, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 10 clear working days, the late TEN window of 5 to 9 clear working days, the £21 fee and the copies to police and environmental health in step 6.
- Licensing Act 2003, section 100, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/100, and section 107, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/107, read 16 September 2026: the 168 hour and under-500 conditions in step 6, and the 15 notices, 21 days, 50/10 and 5/2 counter notice triggers in step 7.
- Gambling Act 2005, section 14, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/14, read 16 September 2026: the definition of a simple lottery in step 8.
- Gambling Commission, "Free draws and prize competitions", https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/public-and-players/guide/page/free-draws-and-prize-competitions, and "How to run a fundraiser with lotteries or raffles at events", https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/public-and-players/guide/page/how-to-run-a-fundraiser-with-lotteries-or-raffles-at-events, no publication dates shown on the pages, read 16 September 2026: the skill test for a prize competition and the £100, £500, no-advance-sales and not-for-private-gain conditions on an incidental lottery, all in step 8.
- GOV.UK, "Bank holidays", https://www.gov.uk/bank-holidays, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: the 2026 and 2027 England and Wales dates in step 3.
- Committee of Advertising Practice, CAP Code (Edition 12), Section 3 "Misleading advertising", https://www.asa.org.uk/type/non_broadcast/code_section/03.html, no publication date shown on the page, read 16 September 2026: rule 3.7's requirement to hold documentary evidence before publication, which is why step 9 makes every claim in the reasoning traceable.

# event-idea-picker

## You are given
The list of event ideas the owner is considering, each as a short description with a proposed day of the week, a proposed start and finish time, an expected audience number and whatever the owner has already decided about a performer or host. The premises licence for the venue, as a document or as typed-out extracts, showing the permitted hours for each licensable activity, the capacity and every condition on the licence including any music condition. The venue's own cost figures: the hourly rates actually paid to staff, the gross margin on an average head on a normal trading night, ingredient or food costs, and any quoted fee for a performer, host, hire or print. The count of temporary event notices and permitted temporary event days already used at this premises in the current calendar year, and the count already used by the individual who would give any new notice, with whether that individual holds a personal licence. The venue's own trading figures by day of week for the last twelve months. The judgements already made by Claude and supplied to you: for each idea, whether it falls inside or outside the premises licence, whether it needs a Temporary Event Notice, which gambling category any prize element falls into, and the final ranking, recommendation and runner-up with their one line reasons.

## Produce
Write into a `./event-idea-picker-output/` folder:

1. `ideas.csv` with these columns in this order: `idea_ref`, `idea_name`, `description_verbatim`, `proposed_day`, `proposed_date`, `start_time`, `finish_time`, `expected_audience`, `venue_capacity`, `inside_current_licence`, `licence_reason`, `needs_ten`, `ten_deadline_date`, `status`. `idea_ref` is E001 upward. `inside_current_licence` and `needs_ten` are `yes`, `no` or `not supplied`. `status` is exactly `ranked`, `variation needed` or `struck`.
2. `licence-check.csv` with columns: `idea_ref`, `activity`, `permitted_hours_on_licence`, `proposed_hours`, `hours_within_licence`, `capacity_on_licence`, `expected_audience`, `capacity_within_licence`, `music_condition_verbatim`, `music_exemption_applies`, `finish_after_2300`, `objective_under_pressure`. `activity` is exactly one of `sale of alcohol`, `regulated entertainment`, `late night refreshment`, `none of these`. `objective_under_pressure` is exactly one of `prevention of crime and disorder`, `public safety`, `prevention of public nuisance`, `protection of children from harm`, `none identified`.
3. `break-even.csv` with columns: `idea_ref`, `cost_item`, `cost_category`, `amount_gbp`, `source_of_figure`. One row per cost item, plus one `TOTAL` row per idea. `cost_category` is exactly one of `performer or host fee`, `extra staff hours`, `food or ingredients`, `print and decoration`, `music licence`, `hire`, `other`. Every row names where the figure came from, and no row is written from an estimate that was not supplied.
4. `break-even-summary.csv` with columns: `idea_ref`, `total_fixed_cost_gbp`, `gross_margin_per_head_gbp`, `break_even_heads`, `venue_capacity`, `break_even_exceeds_capacity`. `break_even_heads` is the total fixed cost divided by the gross margin per head, rounded up to a whole person.
5. `ten-allowance.csv` with columns: `counter`, `limit`, `used_this_year`, `remaining`, `source_of_used_figure`. Rows, in this order: `notices at these premises` limit 15; `permitted temporary event days at these premises` limit 21; `notices by this individual` limit 50 where a personal licence is held and 5 where it is not; `late notices by this individual` limit 10 where a personal licence is held and 2 where it is not. Write `not supplied` in `used_this_year` where the owner has not given the count, and list it in `gaps.md`.
6. `date-clashes.csv` with columns: `idea_ref`, `proposed_date`, `clash_type`, `clash_detail`, `source`. `clash_type` is exactly one of `bank holiday`, `school holiday`, `local fixture or event`, `already in the venue diary`, `none found`.
7. `prize-elements.csv` with columns: `idea_ref`, `prize_element_description`, `category_supplied`, `condition_relied_on`, `payment_required_to_enter`, `chance_or_skill`, `tickets_sold_in_advance_or_online`, `costs_from_proceeds_gbp`, `prizes_from_proceeds_gbp`, `for_private_gain`. `category_supplied` is exactly one of `lottery`, `incidental lottery`, `prize competition`, `free draw`, `no prize element` and is copied from the judgement supplied, never decided here.
8. `ranking.md` - the ranked table of surviving ideas with the break-even number and the permission each still needs, then the recommendation, the runner-up and the one line reason for each, all copied verbatim from the judgement supplied. Under it, every struck idea with the reason and the section, rule or guidance cited, verbatim as supplied.
9. `gaps.md` - a numbered list of: any idea with no proposed date; any idea with no expected audience number; any cost item with no source; any idea with no gross margin per head to divide by; any temporary event notice count not supplied; any licence condition the owner could not produce; any prize element with no category supplied; and any idea whose break-even number exceeds the venue capacity.

## Rules
- Codex measures, counts, records and checks. It never decides whether an idea is inside the licence, never decides which gambling category a prize element falls into, never ranks an idea, and never writes the recommendation. Those judgements arrive with the input.
- Never invent a cost, a margin, an attendance figure or a capacity. A figure with no supplied source is written as `not supplied` and listed in `gaps.md`.
- Never write an industry average, a seasonal uplift, an expected turnout or any benchmark attendance into any file. No such figure exists for a single independent venue.
- Never soften a struck idea. A struck idea stays struck, keeps its citation, and does not appear in `ranking.md` above the line.
- Temporary event notice deadlines are counted, not estimated: count clear working days backwards from the event date, excluding weekends and the England and Wales bank holidays supplied, and write the resulting calendar date.
- Every quoted licence condition, idea description and reason is copied exactly, including its punctuation and capitalisation.
- Money is in GBP with the pound sign and two decimal places. Dates are DD Month YYYY. Times are 24 hour. British English throughout.
- No em dash characters in any file you write. Use a comma, a full stop or the word "and". A supplied line containing one is recorded verbatim and flagged in `gaps.md`.
- Every file ends with this line: this is a working document prepared for the owner to check against their own premises licence, accounts and diary, and for their licensing officer, accountant or solicitor to check before anything is booked or advertised. It is not legal advice and it is not a licensing decision.

## Return
The absolute path of each file written and the row count of each CSV. The number of ideas supplied, the number ranked, the number marked as needing a variation and the number struck, with the reason count by type. The break-even number for every ranked idea and the name of any idea whose break-even exceeds the venue capacity. The Temporary Event Notice deadline date for every idea that needs one, and the remaining allowance on each of the four counters or the words "not supplied". Every date clash found, by idea. Every prize element and the category supplied for it. The recommendation and the runner-up exactly as recorded. The `gaps.md` item count.