january-plan

---
name: january-plan
description: Builds January's plan in November while the December money is still coming in: every obligation with its real date, the tips and holiday the peak has already committed you to, a week by week cash line built from December's own takings, the three trading patterns costed side by side, the employment mechanics if you reduce hours, and the April cost step brought forward into the decision. Use in early November, before the peak takes your attention and before the money is spent.
---

# January's bills, wages and decisions settled in November, while there is still cash to settle them with

You give this your December booking book, last January's takings and costs, your payroll and contracts, your tax and rates position, and your fixed costs by week. You get back a January plan built in November: every obligation with its actual date, the December tips and the peak's accrued holiday sitting in the January payroll line where they belong, a week by week cash line, the full, reduced and closed trading patterns costed against each other, the employment steps if you reduce, and the April increases brought into the decision rather than discovered in the spring. It will not tell you whether to close. It shows you what each option costs and what each one commits you to.

## What it does

1. **List every January obligation with its real date before making a single decision about trading.** Rent and any quarter day. The business rates instalment. The payroll runs with their dates. The pension contributions. Every standing order and direct debit. The supplier accounts falling due from December deliveries, which are the ones that surprise people, because a December invoice on thirty days lands in January on top of everything else. Then the tax dates in step 2. One list, one date column, sorted. Almost every January cash crisis in hospitality is not a trading problem, it is a clustering problem: obligations that were manageable spread across a quarter all arrive in the same four weeks.

2. **Fix the tax dates exactly, against the current gov.uk pages, rather than against what you remember.** For Self Assessment, gov.uk states "You must submit your online tax return by 11:59pm on 31 January 2027 or you'll get a late filing penalty" and "You need to pay your Self Assessment tax by 11:59pm on 31 January 2027 or you'll get a penalty", with "a second payment deadline of 31 July if you make payments towards your bill". For VAT, "The deadline for submitting your return online is usually one calendar month and 7 days after the end of an accounting period. This is also the deadline for paying HMRC." Work out now, in November, whether the cash reaches those dates. If it does not, gov.uk's position is that "If you cannot pay your tax bill in full, you may be able to set up a payment plan to pay it in instalments", and November is when to ask about it. February is when everyone asks.

3. **Put December's service charge into the January payroll line, because that is where the law puts it.** The statutory Code of Practice under the Employment (Allocation of Tips) Act 2023 requires that "employers must ensure that all tips are distributed to staff, at the latest, by the end of the month following the month in which the tips are paid by customers". December's tips are therefore due by 31 January. For a venue whose December service charge is a serious number, this is one of the largest single January outflows and it is routinely left out of the plan because it does not feel like a cost. It is not the venue's money and it never was, so it belongs in the cash line at its full amount with its deadline attached, not in a note.

4. **Put the peak's accrued holiday into the January payroll line as well.** For leave years beginning on or after 1 April 2024, holiday entitlement for irregular hours and part-year workers is "calculated as 12.07% of actual hours worked in a pay period". A peak staffed by casuals and extra shifts accrues that holiday through November and December and pays a good deal of it out afterwards, which is exactly when trade is at its lowest. Take the accrual figure from the rota, not from an estimate, and put it in the week it will actually be paid. A venue that costed December without the accrual has already moved a cost into January without recording it.

5. **Build the January cash line week by week, from December's own takings rather than from an annual average.** Four or five rows, one per week. Takings in, from last January adjusted only by things you can name, such as a new competitor or a closed road. Money out, from steps 1 to 4. The running balance. Where last January's figures do not exist or are not comparable, say so in the plan and mark that week as unmodelled rather than smoothing it. A monthly total hides the shape, and the shape is the point: most January failures happen in a single week, usually the second or third, and a monthly figure that nets out will not show it.

6. **Cost the three trading patterns side by side before choosing one.** Full trading. Reduced trading, meaning fewer days or shorter services, with the fixed costs that do not reduce named separately from the variable ones that do. Full closure for a stated period, with the costs that continue anyway: rent, rates, insurance, standing charges, and whatever you are contractually obliged to pay staff. Each option gets a total and a bottom line, and each gets a line for what it costs you that is not money: the regulars who find somewhere else, the staff who take another job, the supplier relationship. A closure that saves two thousand pounds and loses a head chef has not saved anything.

7. **If you are going to reduce hours or close, get the employment mechanics right before you tell anyone.** gov.uk's position on lay-offs and short-time working is that an employer "can ask you to stay at home or take unpaid leave if there's not enough work for you", that "There's no limit for how long you can be laid off or put on short-time", and critically that a worker "should get your full pay unless your contract allows unpaid or reduced pay lay-offs". So the first question is what the contracts say, and the answer is usually nothing. Where lay-off applies, guarantee pay is "£41 a day" for a maximum of "5 days in any 3-month period", a total of 205 pounds, for someone "employed continuously for 1 month". And the route your staff have: after "4 weeks in a row" or "6 weeks in a 13-week period" they may apply for redundancy. Take all of it to an HR adviser before a word is said to the team.

8. **Bring April's step change into the November decision.** Two things move in the spring and both should be in the plan you write now. The National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage change on 1 April every year, and the rates in force from April 2026 are 12.71 pounds an hour at 21 and over, 10.85 pounds at 18 to 20, and 8.00 pounds for under 18s and for apprentices in their first year or under 19. On business rates, from April 2026 the government introduced two lower multipliers for retail, hospitality and leisure properties, set "5p below their national equivalents", with a small business RHL multiplier for rateable values under 51,000 pounds and a standard RHL multiplier for values between 51,000 and 499,999 pounds. Check which one your property sits in and put the number in the plan, because a January decision about staffing that ignores April's wage bill is a decision made against the wrong figure.

9. **Decide what January is actually for, then write the one page plan with dates, owners and a review date.** January is the only month with time in it. Deep clean, the maintenance that cannot be done in service, the menu development for spring, the training nobody could spare a shift for, the supplier renegotiation, the accounts brought properly up to date. Each one gets a budget, a named person and a week. Under it, the cash line and the obligation list from steps 1 to 5. In the footer, the date the plan was built, the date each figure was taken from, and a review date in the first week of January when December's real numbers replace the forecast. A January plan written in November and never revisited is a forecast, not a plan.

## Then it checks

1. Every obligation in the list carries a date and an amount, and any amount that is an estimate says so and names what it is estimated from.
2. The Self Assessment and VAT dates in the plan match the dates currently published on gov.uk, with the date those pages were read recorded next to them.
3. The December tips figure appears in the January payroll line at its full amount with the end of January deadline attached, and is not netted against anything.
4. The holiday accrual figure comes from the actual hours on the peak rota and appears in the week it will be paid, not as an annual note.
5. Each of the three trading patterns has a total, a stated list of costs that continue regardless, and a named non financial consequence, and no pattern is presented as the recommendation.
6. The plan states the April minimum wage rates and the property's RHL multiplier position, names the person responsible for each January project with its week and budget, and carries a review date in the first week of January.

Any check fails: name it, redo that step once. Failed twice: say what is wrong and stop.

## Rules
- Public information only.
- Never invent a fact, a number or a quote.
- Anything sent in someone's name says whose name it is.
- Never state a January trading decline, a seasonal index, a typical quiet month percentage or an industry cash flow benchmark. No published figure exists for a single independent UK venue, and an owner planning against a borrowed decline will either cut too hard or not hard enough, with no way of knowing which.
- Never recommend closing, reducing or trading on. The skill costs the options the owner describes against their own figures. Which one is right depends on their lease, their team and what they intend to do in March, and none of that is in a spreadsheet.
- Never draft a lay-off letter, a short-time notice or a redundancy communication, and never state that a contract permits unpaid lay-off. That is a reading of the owner's own contracts and it belongs to their HR adviser, who should see it before anything is said to a single member of staff.
- Never treat December tips as the venue's cash. They are held for the staff, they are due by the end of January under the statutory Code, and a plan that quietly counts them as working capital has budgeted to break the law.
- Never carry a tax date forward from last year's plan. Deadlines shift with the weekend and with the tax year, and a plan built on a remembered date is the single cheapest error to prevent and one of the more expensive to make.
- Never present a monthly total as the cash position. The plan is weekly, because a month that nets to positive can still be empty in week three and that is the week the wages run.
- This output is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check on tax dates, VAT and liabilities, and their HR adviser to check on anything touching hours, pay or staff. It applies published deadlines and rates to the owner's own figures. It is not tax advice, it is not employment advice, and it is not a statement that the plan is affordable.

## Built from
- GOV.UK, "Self Assessment tax returns: Deadlines", https://www.gov.uk/self-assessment-tax-returns/deadlines, read 16 September 2026: the 31 January 2027 filing and payment deadlines and the 31 July payment on account date in step 2.
- GOV.UK, "Send a VAT Return: Deadlines", https://www.gov.uk/vat-returns/deadlines, read 16 September 2026: the one calendar month and 7 days rule for submission and payment in step 2.
- GOV.UK, "If you cannot pay your tax bill on time", https://www.gov.uk/difficulties-paying-hmrc, read 16 September 2026: the existence of a payment plan, quoted in step 2 to establish that the November conversation is possible.
- Department for Business and Trade, "Code of practice on fair and transparent distribution of tips", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/distributing-tips-fairly-statutory-code-of-practice/code-of-practice-on-fair-and-transparent-distribution-of-tips-html-version, published 29 July 2024, in force 1 October 2024, read 16 September 2026: the end of the following month deadline that puts December tips in January, in step 3.
- Department for Business and Trade, "Holiday pay and entitlement reforms from 1 January 2024", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/simplifying-holiday-entitlement-and-holiday-pay-calculations/holiday-pay-and-entitlement-reforms-from-1-january-2024, published 1 January 2024, updated 1 April 2024, read 16 September 2026: the 12.07% accrual for irregular hours and part-year workers in step 4.
- GOV.UK, "Lay-offs and short-time working", https://www.gov.uk/lay-offs-short-timeworking, and "Lay-offs and short-time working: Guarantee pay", https://www.gov.uk/lay-offs-short-timeworking/guarantee-pay, both read 16 September 2026: the position on pay during lay-off, the 41 pounds a day guarantee pay capped at 5 days in any 3 month period, the one month continuous employment condition, and the 4 weeks in a row or 6 weeks in 13 redundancy route, all in step 7.
- GOV.UK, "National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates", https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates, read 16 September 2026: the April 2026 rates and the 1 April change date in step 8.
- GOV.UK, "Business Rates Multipliers: Qualifying Retail, Hospitality or Leisure", https://www.gov.uk/guidance/business-rates-multipliers-qualifying-retail-hospitality-or-leisure, published 16 October 2025, last updated 30 March 2026, read 16 September 2026: the two lower RHL multipliers set 5p below their national equivalents and the rateable value bands in step 8.

# january-plan

## You are given
The November position of one UK hospitality business. The obligation list the owner has compiled: every rent, rates instalment, loan repayment, standing order, direct debit, pension contribution, insurance premium and supplier account falling due in January, each with a due date, an amount in GBP and a note of whether the amount is confirmed or estimated. The payroll schedule for January with its run dates. The December service charge figure to date and the venue's tips policy. The peak rota output, with actual and forecast hours by worker so the holiday accrual can be read rather than guessed. Last January's weekly takings and weekly costs where they exist, week by week, with a note against any week the owner says is not comparable and why. The December booking book. The fixed and variable cost split the owner has supplied for a reduced trading pattern, and the list of costs that continue during a full closure. The rateable value of the property and which multiplier band the owner has determined applies. The tax dates as read from gov.uk on a stated date, supplied by the owner or by Claude, never looked up by you. Every decision about whether to close, reduce or trade on, and every reading of an employment contract, has already been made by the owner with their accountant and HR adviser.

## Produce
Write into a `./january-plan-output/` folder:

1. `obligations.csv` with these columns in this order: `obligation_ref`, `due_date`, `week_commencing`, `category`, `description_verbatim`, `amount_gbp`, `amount_confirmed`, `source`, `deferrable`. `category` is exactly one of `rent`, `business rates`, `payroll`, `tips distribution`, `holiday pay`, `pension`, `tax`, `supplier`, `loan`, `insurance`, `utility`, `other`. `amount_confirmed` is `yes` or `no`, and every `no` names what it is estimated from in `source`. `deferrable` is `yes`, `no` or `not stated` and is taken only from the owner's supplied note, never inferred.
2. `tax-dates.csv` with columns: `tax`, `period`, `filing_deadline`, `payment_deadline`, `amount_expected_gbp`, `amount_confirmed`, `gov_uk_page`, `date_page_read`. One row per tax. Any row with an empty `date_page_read` is listed in `gaps.md`, because an undated deadline is a remembered deadline.
3. `payroll-january.csv` with columns: `run_date`, `week_commencing`, `basic_pay_gbp`, `employer_national_insurance_gbp`, `pension_gbp`, `holiday_pay_gbp`, `tips_distribution_gbp`, `tips_deadline_date`, `total_gbp`, `holiday_accrual_source`. `holiday_accrual_source` is exactly one of `actual hours from rota`, `forecast hours from rota`, `not supplied`. The tips row is never netted against any other figure and never appears anywhere as venue income.
4. `cash-line.csv` with columns: `week_commencing`, `takings_in_gbp`, `takings_basis`, `obligations_out_gbp`, `payroll_out_gbp`, `other_out_gbp`, `net_gbp`, `running_balance_gbp`, `week_modelled`. `takings_basis` is exactly one of `last January actual`, `last January adjusted`, `owner estimate`, `no comparable data`. `week_modelled` is `yes` or `no`, and every `no` is listed in `gaps.md` rather than smoothed from neighbouring weeks.
5. `trading-options.csv` with columns: `option`, `days_open`, `takings_gbp`, `variable_costs_gbp`, `fixed_costs_that_continue_gbp`, `staff_costs_gbp`, `total_costs_gbp`, `net_gbp`, `costs_that_continue_listed`, `non_financial_consequence_verbatim`. `option` is exactly one of `full trading`, `reduced trading`, `full closure`. Exactly three rows. `non_financial_consequence_verbatim` is copied from the owner's own words and is never written by you. No row is marked as recommended and no ranking column exists.
6. `april-step.csv` with columns: `cost_line`, `rate_now_gbp`, `rate_from_april_gbp`, `basis`, `annual_effect_gbp`, `source_page`, `date_page_read`. Rows cover each minimum wage band in use and the business rates multiplier position. `basis` records the hours or rateable value the effect is calculated on.
7. `january-projects.csv` with columns: `project_ref`, `project_name_verbatim`, `week_commencing`, `owner_name`, `budget_gbp`, `depends_on`, `status`. `status` is exactly `planned`. Every row must carry a non empty `owner_name` and `week_commencing` or it is listed in `gaps.md`.
8. `gaps.md` a numbered list of: every obligation with an unconfirmed amount; every tax row with no date the page was read; every week with no comparable data; every week whose running balance is negative, with the amount and the obligation that takes it under; any holiday accrual sourced as `not supplied`; any January project with no named owner, no week or no budget; any figure supplied without a date; and any trading option missing a stated list of costs that continue.

## Rules
- Codex lists, dates, totals and compares. It never recommends a trading pattern, never ranks the three options, never decides whether an obligation can be deferred, never reads an employment contract and never drafts a communication to staff. Those were supplied or belong to the owner's advisers.
- Never look up a tax deadline. Every date in `tax-dates.csv` is supplied with the gov.uk page it came from and the date that page was read. A row without both is recorded as incomplete and listed in `gaps.md`.
- Never net the December tips figure against anything, never include it in any takings or income column, and never describe it as cash available. It appears once, as an outflow in `payroll-january.csv`, with its deadline date.
- Never smooth a week. A week with no comparable data is `no comparable data`, `week_modelled` is `no`, and the running balance from that week onward is reported as uncertain in the return.
- Never estimate a holiday accrual. It comes from the supplied rota hours at the supplied rate. Where hours were not supplied the field reads `not supplied` and the payroll total is reported as incomplete.
- Never write a January decline percentage, a seasonal index, a quiet month benchmark or any industry average into any file. No such figure exists for a single independent UK venue and none is to be recorded.
- Never mark a trading option as recommended, preferred or best, and never add a column that ranks them. Three rows, three totals, and the owner decides.
- Use British English, GBP written as `GBP` or the pound sign, and DD Month YYYY dates. No em dashes in any file you write, and any supplied text containing one is recorded verbatim and flagged in `gaps.md`.
- Every supplied description, project name and non financial consequence is copied exactly, including its punctuation and capitalisation.
- Every file ends with this line: this is a working document prepared for the owner's accountant to check on tax, VAT and liabilities, and their HR adviser to check on anything touching hours, pay or staff. It applies supplied deadlines and supplied figures and is not tax advice, employment advice or a statement that the plan is affordable.

## Return
The absolute path of every file written, the row count of each CSV, the total obligations falling due in January with the count whose amount is unconfirmed, every tax deadline with the date its gov.uk page was read or the word missing, the January payroll total broken into basic pay, holiday pay and tips distribution with the tips deadline date stated separately, the weekly cash line as a list of week commencing dates with running balances, every week whose running balance is negative with the amount and the obligation that takes it under, every week marked as not modelled, the three trading option totals in the order `full trading`, `reduced trading`, `full closure` with no ranking, the annual effect of the April step by cost line, the count of January projects with a named owner and the count without, and the `gaps.md` item count.